REBGV November 2015 Stats

  • Incredible Real Estate Statistics: November 2015 November 2015 proved to be an incredible month in real estate. Sales were 46.2%above the 10-year sales average for the month and rank as the second highest November on record for residential property sales. Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12% per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20% per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time. The rest of the numbers at a glance: Total number of properties listed for sale on MLS® is 8,096; a 35 % decline compared to November 2014 and a 15.4%decline compared to October 2015. The sales-to-active-listings ratio in November was 43.5%. In his latest Economic Commentary, Central 1’s chief economist Helmut Pastrick predicts that Vancouver home prices will keep rising, driven by demand and limited supply, until such a time as it is hit by an economic recession. “High prices and overvaluation will not cause a housing correction,” said Pastrick. It’s his belief that economic triggers are what will eventually cause a subsequent decline in housing prices. That even in the event of a housing recession, the situation for homeowners would not be dire because  the market always recovers.  Which means that for the long-term investor, properties are not overvalued in the Vancouver market. “Outcries about unsustainable prices, worsening affordability, rising vulnerabilities and heightened risks will continue until the next housing recession,” said Pastrick. He predicts these cyclical recessions to be a temporary situation, lasting one- to two years depending on their cause, where housing prices will momentarily stabilize as supply and demand both dip.   “There are few signs that speculation is driving the market,” he added. “Since the 2008-09 recession, flipping activity has been relatively low at around 5% of sales.” (2) Thus, it appears that an economic downturn would have to be local for the local market to be affected. Even as Alberta’s oil-dependant economy is in a downturn, the Vancouver market has seen consistent price increase month after month. Buoyed by the lowest interest rates in Canadian history our market shows no signs of slowing.. That’s good news for anyone selling in the Lower Mainland.   Feel free to share these interesting market predictions, and tell us what you think! We’re never too busy to hear from you, or for a referral. All the best, Doug Click here for more details Photo by: Gabriel Santiago

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